More misleading averages from Bush administration (5/31)

By Ben Fritz

When it comes to promoting its tax policy, the Bush administration seems to have no shame in its continued use of deceptive statistical averages.

Speaking at a signing ceremony for the new tax cut legislation on Wednesday, the President made a number of misleading statements about the benefits taxpayers will receive under the plan. Bush first discussed the bill's benefits for families . "Altogether, 34 million families with children, including 6 million single moms, will receive an average tax cut of $1,549 per year," he said. As with so many averages used by the administration, though, this average is brought up significantly by the large tax cuts that the wealthiest taxpayers would receive. According to a report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), data from the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center demonstrates that 77.8 percent of taxpayers will actually receive less than this average figure.

The President also touted the bill's benefits for seniors, saying, "12 million seniors will receive an average tax reduction of $1,401." Once again, though, most of the benefits go to the upper end of the income spectrum. Tax Policy Center data shows that 89.4 percent of senior taxpayers will receive less than $1,401.

The same goes for small businesses. Bush's statement: "23 million small business owners will receive an average tax cut of $2,209." Reality (according to CBPP): "The Tax Policy Center analysis finds that nearly 83 percent of those with small businesses income will receive less than this average amount."

In a press release touting the benefits of the new tax cuts, the Treasury Department used similarly deceptive numbers. "In 2003, 91 million taxpayers will receive, on average, a tax cut of $1,126 under the Jobs and Growth Act of 2003," the release stated. But this average is heavily skewed upwards by large tax cuts for the wealthy. The average tax cut for families in the middle fifth of income earners is just $217, according to the Tax Policy Center.

While many media reports on the tax cut correctly presented that the majority of the new law's benefits go to the wealthy, several publications printed these deceptive averages as fact. These include an Associated Press article and a piece in the Los Angeles Times (link?), both of which repeated the "91 million taxpayers" number, and a story in the Indianapolis Star that cited that figure as well as the misleading average benefits presented for senior citizens and small businesses.

Government officials have a responsibility to accurately represent the actions they take to the public. If they do not, citizens should be able to trust that the media will present citizens with the truth. However, the Bush administration has demonstrated its willingness to once again bend the truth to push tax cuts and some in the media are simply playing along.

Research assistance by Davis Bell.

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Related links:
-Spinsanity's coverage of tax and budget issues

5/31/2003 09:50:55 AM EST |

Barnes perpetuates the Scud myth (5/30)

By Brendan Nyhan

In his cover story on General Tommy Franks in this week's Weekly Standard, executive editor Fred Barnes claims Scud missile sites were taken out in Iraq before the war:

American, British, and Australian special forces from Jordan captured Iraq's Scud missile sites in western Iraq two days before the larger war began.

...Last March, the special ops forces that slipped into the west at night took out all the Scud sites before a single missile was fired.

...Had special ops failed in the west, Franks had Plan B, sending a large contingent of forces from Kuwait to attack the Scud sites.

But, contrary to Barnes, news reports have indicated that no Scuds have been discovered in Iraq. On May 22, CBS News reported on its website that "No illegal Scud missiles were fired during the war or found afterward," and National Public Radio defense correspondent Tom Gjelten also stated on May 28 that there is "[n]o sign" of Scuds in Iraq (Real Player audio). (In addition, as we noted in early April, initial reports of Scuds being fired into Kuwait were apparently incorrect, according to the US military.)

These facts are significant because Iraq was prohibited from possessing Scuds under the disarmament agreement it entered into after the first Gulf War. Iraq did reportedly fire Ababil-100 and Al Samoud-2 missiles at US forces and Kuwaiti targets. (According to the United Nations, the Al Samoud-2 was also banned under the 1991 disarmament agreement, which limited Iraqi missiles to a range of 150 kilometers.) Presumably, US special forces attacked sites where these missiles were based. But, if media reports are correct, they were not Scuds. Unless Barnes is glossing over important news, he and the Standard lack command of a basic fact about the war.

Update 6/4 11:41 AM EST: Further confirmation that Scuds have not been found (from Newsweek): "Nor did Special Forces find any of the 20 or so Scud missiles, possibly tipped with chem-bio warheads, that were said by the CIA to be lurking somewhere in the Western Desert."

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Related links:
-Myths and misconceptions about the war in Iraq (Brendan Nyhan and Bryan Keefer, 4/4/03)

5/30/2003 10:55:35 AM EST |

More myths, misconceptions and unanswered questions about the war in Iraq (5/28)

By Brendan Nyhan and Bryan Keefer

In the wake of the war in Iraq, a number of questions have arisen about events during the war and Iraq's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction and ties to Al Qaeda. As in our earlier columns about the Iraq debate, this article is intended to deal only with claims that have been addressed definitively or near-definitively in the public record. It is our hope that this column will serve to clarify some of the key issues being debated in the aftermath of the war and correct some of the most pervasive myths in circulation.

Questions we address:
-Have weapons of mass destruction been found in Iraq?
-Has evidence of links between Saddam Hussein's regime and Al Qaeda been found in Iraq?
-Were thousands of items looted from the National Museum of Iraq in Baghdad?
-Where did the American flag come from that was placed on the statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad?
-What actually happened to Pfc. Jessica Lynch?

(Read the whole column - last updated June 4.)

5/28/2003 09:00:07 AM EST |

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